NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress)/EXPERT: Bridging the gap between artificial intelligence and FORTRAN

The development of a probabilistic structural analysis methodology (PSAM) is described. In the near-term, the methodology will be applied to designing critical components of the next generation space shuttle main engine. In the long-term, PSAM will be applied very broadly, providing designers with a new technology for more effective design of structures whose character and performance are significantly affected by random variables. The software under development to implement the ideas developed in PSAM resembles, in many ways, conventional deterministic structural analysis code. However, several additional capabilities regarding the probabilistic analysis makes the input data requirements and the resulting output even more complex. As a result, an intelligent front- and back-end to the code is being developed to assist the design engineer in providing the input data in a correct and appropriate manner. The type of knowledge that this entails is, in general, heuristically-based, allowing the fairly well-understood technology of production rules to apply with little difficulty. However, the PSAM code, called NESSUS, is written in FORTRAN-77 and runs on a DEC VAX. Thus, the associated expert system, called NESSUS/EXPERT, must run on a DEC VAX as well, and integrate effectively and efficiently with the existing FORTRAN code. This paper discusses the process undergone to select a suitable tool, identify an appropriate division between the functions that should be performed in FORTRAN and those that should be performed by production rules, and how integration of the conventional and AI technologies was achieved

Disparities in Cause-Specific Cancer Survival by Census Tract Poverty Level in Idaho, U.S.

Objective. This population-based study compared cause-specific cancer survival by socioeconomic status using methods to more accurately assign cancer deaths to primary site. Methods. The current study analyzed Idaho data used in the Accuracy of Cancer Mortality Statistics Based on Death Certificates (ACM) study supplemented with additional information to measure cause-specific cancer survival by census tract poverty level. Results. The distribution of cases by primary site group differed significantly by poverty level (chi-square = 265.3, 100 df, p In the life table analyses, for 8 of 24 primary site groups investigated, and all sites combined, there was a significant gradient relating higher poverty with poorer survival. For all sites combined, the absolute difference in 5-year cause-specific survival rate was 13.6% between the lowest and highest poverty levels. Conclusions. This study shows striking disparities in cause-specific cancer survival related to the poverty level of the area a person resides in at the time of diagnosis

On arithmetic and asymptotic properties of up-down numbers

Let $\sigma=(\sigma_1,..., \sigma_N)$, where $\sigma_i =\pm 1$, and let $C(\sigma)$ denote the number of permutations $\pi$ of $1,2,..., N+1,$ whose up-down signature $\mathrm{sign}(\pi(i+1)-\pi(i))=\sigma_i$, for $i=1,...,N$. We prove that the set of all up-down numbers $C(\sigma)$ can be expressed by a single universal polynomial $\Phi$, whose coefficients are products of numbers from the Taylor series of the hyperbolic tangent function. We prove that $\Phi$ is a modified exponential, and deduce some remarkable congruence properties for the set of all numbers $C(\sigma)$, for fixed $N$. We prove a concise upper-bound for $C(\sigma)$, which describes the asymptotic behaviour of the up-down function $C(\sigma)$ in the limit $C(\sigma) \ll (N+1)!$.Comment: Recommended for publication in Discrete Mathematics subject to revision

Emission Optics of the Steigerwald Type Electron Gun

The emission optics of a Steigerwald type electron gun is re-examined. The virtual and real points of divergence, divergence angles and beam-widths of the electron beams at different telefocusing strength are measured in detail for first time . Two different Wehnelt cylinders are used to establish a contrasting viewpoint. The original `focusing' curves measured by Braucks are reconstructed and will be explained only through a `new' interpretation which is different from the conventional views. While the image of the emitting surface in front of the filament is indeed telefocused beyond the anode, the envelope of the beam does not `focus' as expected. A new model for the emission mechanism is established based on our results.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure

User documentation for the MSK and OMS intelligent tutoring systems

This user's guide describes how to use the Intelligent Tutoring Systems for the Manual Select Keyboard (MSK) and the Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS) and how to use the C code that runs the mockup version of the MSK